Demographics 2017-11-17T18:43:56+00:00

Demographics

People are an important asset to a community as they shape the community in different ways.  Understanding a region’s population can allow for the identification of strengths and opportunities. 

Examining demographic information can help local governments provide services and develop policies to improve a region’s economic prosperity and sense of community. For example, if a region has low levels of educational attainment, local governments can create policies to encourage adult education. Likewise, if a region has a large number of foreign language speakers, local residents can host a multitude of cultural festivals and activities to foster a sense of community within the population.

Data for this indicator was obtained from the Census Bureau. Years 2000 and 2010 were obtained from the respective Decennial Census,’ while intercensal estimates were obtained from Components of Population Change. Each county’s population was summed to obtain the NSJV population.

This graph shows the population of the NSJV between 2000 and 2015. Population growth in the NSJV was fastest in the early 2000s as the dot com bubble drew large numbers of people to the Bay Area and led many people from the Bay Area to find cheaper housing in the NSJV. Since 2005 the fastest growth has occurred in the past two years when the NSJV grew by approximately 1.3% per year; this is an increase of about 19,000 residents annually. For comparison, California grew by 0.91% between 2014 and 2015.

Population Growth

California NSJV
2015 38,993,940 1,525,982
2016 39,250,017 1,543,941
% Change 0.66% 1.18%

Data for this indicator was obtained from the Census Bureau’s Components of Population Change. County populations were summed to obtain the NSJV population.

This table shows the NSJV population and growth rate between 2014 and 2015, highlighting recent results from the previous graph. The table shows that while the total increase to California’s population is significantly higher than the increase in the NSJV population, the NSJV grew at a faster pace between 2014 and 2015, increasing by 1.31% compared to California’s 0.91%.

Data for this indicator was obtained from the Census Bureau’s Components of Population Change. Net migration totals were summed across the three counties to obtain the total NSJV net migration for foreign, domestic and total migration.

This graph shows net foreign, domestic, and total migration for the NSJV; it shows the total number of in-migrants minus the total number of out-migrants for both foreign and domestic migration. This graph also shows the large number of people migrating to the NSJV during the early 2000s; a significant number of these migrants came from the Bay Area.

Total net migration turned negative during the height of the Great Recession and during the Stockton bankruptcy proceedings. While the bankruptcy proceedings only affected Stockton and San Joaquin County, the size of San Joaquin County compared to Stanislaus and Merced drove the total NSJV net migration negative. Net migration in 2014 and 2015 has been steady, averaging a little under 10,000 people per year, approximately half of the total NSJV population increase.

Data for this indicator was obtained from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Wonder Database, and the Census Bureau’s Components of Population Change. The number of births for each county was obtained from the Wonder Database and summed to get the NSJV total. This number was then divided by the population of the NSJV obtained from the Census and multiplied by 1,000 to get the birth rates per 1,000 people.

This graph shows birth rates per 1,000 residents for California, the NSJV and its components counties. Birth rates in all regions shown have been decreasing steadily since 2007, although birth rates in California remain below those of all NSJV counties. Since 2000 Merced County has had the highest birth rates in the NSJV. The NSJV is younger than California as a whole which has contributed to the regions higher birth rates. Birth rates in California and the NSJV held steady in 2014, possibly changing the trend of decreasing birth rates seen over the past seven years.

Data for this indicator was obtained from forecasts produced by CBPR for the NSJV counties.

This graph shows the population forecast for the NJSV created by the Center for Business and Policy Research. The population of the NSJV is expected to increase by approximately 70% by 2060, an increase of slightly less than 1.1 million people. This is a growth rate of 1.18% annually. The NSJV is expected to reach 2 million residents by 2037.

Forecast population growth rate:
2015-2060

2015 2060 Annual Growth Rate
NSJV 1,525,982 2,416,265 1.02%

Data for this indicator was obtained from forecasts produced by CBPR for the NSJV counties.

Educational Attainment was obtained from the Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

This graph shows the educational attainment of California, the NSJV and its component counties in 2015. The NSJV is significantly less educated than California as a whole. Only 17.2% of the NSJV has a bachelor’s degree or higher compared to 32.3% for California. San Joaquin County is the most educated of the NSJV counties. 18.8% of the population over the age of 25 has a bachelor’s degree or higher. Conversely only 14.4% of Merced County and 16.4% of Stanislaus County have at least a bachelor’s degree. The largest group of residents for all areas examined was with some college or an associate’s degree. This group includes community college and vocational school graduates, as well as those who began a 4-year degree, but did not graduate.