Demographics 2017-08-29T20:22:24+00:00

Demographics

People are an important asset to a community as they shape the community in different ways.  Understanding a region’s population can allow for the identification of strengths and opportunities. 

Examining demographic information can help local governments provide services and develop policies to improve a region’s economic prosperity and sense of community. For example, if a region has low levels of educational attainment, local governments can create policies to encourage adult education. Likewise, if a region has a large number of foreign language speakers, local residents can host a multitude of cultural festivals and activities to foster a sense of community within the population.

Data for this indicator was obtained from the Census Bureau. Years 2000 and 2010 were obtained from the respective Decennial Census,’ while intercensal estimates were obtained from Components of Population Change. Each county’s population was summed to obtain the NSJV population.

This graph shows the population of the NSJV between 2000 and 2015. Population growth in the NSJV was fastest in the early 2000s as the dot com bubble drew large numbers of people to the Bay Area and led many people from the Bay Area to find cheaper housing in the NSJV. Since 2005 the fastest growth has occurred in the past two years when the NSJV grew by approximately 1.3% per year; this is an increase of about 19,000 residents annually. For comparison, California grew by 0.91% between 2014 and 2015.

Population Growth

California NSJV
2014 38,649,435 1,513,947
2015 39,144,818 1,532,949
% Change 0.91% 1.31%

Data for this indicator was obtained from the Census Bureau’s Components of Population Change. County populations were summed to obtain the NSJV population.

This table shows the NSJV population and growth rate between 2014 and 2015, highlighting recent results from the previous graph. The table shows that while the total increase to California’s population is significantly higher than the increase in the NSJV population, the NSJV grew at a faster pace between 2014 and 2015, increasing by 1.31% compared to California’s 0.91%.

Data for this indicator was obtained from the Census Bureau’s Components of Population Change. Net migration totals were summed across the three counties to obtain the total NSJV net migration for foreign, domestic and total migration.

This graph shows net foreign, domestic, and total migration for the NSJV; it shows the total number of in-migrants minus the total number of out-migrants for both foreign and domestic migration. This graph also shows the large number of people migrating to the NSJV during the early 2000s; a significant number of these migrants came from the Bay Area.

Total net migration turned negative during the height of the Great Recession and during the Stockton bankruptcy proceedings. While the bankruptcy proceedings only affected Stockton and San Joaquin County, the size of San Joaquin County compared to Stanislaus and Merced drove the total NSJV net migration negative. Net migration in 2014 and 2015 has been steady, averaging a little under 10,000 people per year, approximately half of the total NSJV population increase.

Age data was obtained from the Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year.

This graph shows the age distribution of California, the NSJV, and its component counties. The NSJV overall is younger than California as a whole with 38% of its population under the age of 25 compared to 33% of California. Merced County is the youngest in the NSJV with 32% of the population under the age of 25. The existing age distribution along with high birth rates are both likely contributors to Merced County having a young population.

Data for this indicator was obtained from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s Wonder Database, and the Census Bureau’s Components of Population Change. The number of births for each county was obtained from the Wonder Database and summed to get the NSJV total. This number was then divided by the population of the NSJV obtained from the Census and multiplied by 1,000 to get the birth rates per 1,000 people.

This graph shows birth rates per 1,000 residents for California, the NSJV and its components counties. Birth rates in all regions shown have been decreasing steadily since 2007, although birth rates in California remain below those of all NSJV counties. Since 2000 Merced County has had the highest birth rates in the NSJV. The NSJV is younger than California as a whole which has contributed to the regions higher birth rates. Birth rates in California and the NSJV held steady in 2014, possibly changing the trend of decreasing birth rates seen over the past seven years.

Data for this indicator was obtained from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, 1-year estimates for 2015. The definition of each generation was taken from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the percent of the population that falls into each of the six generations as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. The NSJV is younger than both California and the United States. Over 53% of the NSJV population are members of the Homeland, and Millennial Generation compared to 49.6% of California and 47% of the U.S. population. On the other end of the spectrum only 7.3% of the NSJV population are members of the GI, and Silent generations compared to 8.1% of California and 9.1% of the U.S. The younger composition of the NSJV could be a contributing factor to the higher birth rates found in the NSJV.

Data for this indicator was obtained from forecasts produced by CBPR for the NSJV counties.

This graph shows the population forecast for the NJSV created by the Center for Business and Policy Research. The population of the NSJV is expected to increase by approximately 70% by 2060, an increase of slightly less than 1.1 million people. This is a growth rate of 1.18% annually. The NSJV is expected to reach 2 million residents by 2037.

Forecast population growth rate:
2015-2060

2015 2060 Annual Growth Rate
NSJV 1,532,949 2,610,820 1.18%

Data for this indicator was obtained from forecasts produced by CBPR for the NSJV counties.

This graph shows the percent of residents in California, the NSJV and its component counties that are foreign born (born outside the United States). A larger percent of California residents were born outside of the United States than NSJV residents. Approximately 27% of Californians were born outside of the United States compared to 23% of NSJV residents. This difference may be explained by international migrants inclination to move to larger urban areas such as Sacramento, the Bay Area, and Los Angeles.

The language spoken by residents who speak a language other than English was obtained from the Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.

This graph shows the distribution of foreign languages in the United States, California and the NSJV for those that speak a language other than English. This graph shows very well greater prevalence of Hispanics and Latinos in the NSJV. Of those the speak a language other than English, 73% of NSJV residents speak Spanish compared to 66% for California and only 62% for the United States. California has a greater percent of residents speak Asian and Pacific Islander languages reflecting the large Asian population in the Bay Area and other urban centers. The United States, on the other hand, has a larger percent of residents speak other Indo-European languages reflecting the original languages spoken by settlers.

View Data

Educational Attainment was obtained from the Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

This graph shows the educational attainment of California, the NSJV and its component counties in 2015. The NSJV is significantly less educated than California as a whole. Only 17.2% of the NSJV has a bachelor’s degree or higher compared to 32.3% for California. San Joaquin County is the most educated of the NSJV counties. 18.8% of the population over the age of 25 has a bachelor’s degree or higher. Conversely only 14.4% of Merced County and 16.4% of Stanislaus County have at least a bachelor’s degree. The largest group of residents for all areas examined was with some college or an associate’s degree. This group includes community college and vocational school graduates, as well as those who began a 4-year degree, but did not graduate.

This data was taken from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community 2015 1-Year Estimates Table S1501.

This graph shows the percent of residents by age group that have a bachelor’s degree or higher in Merced, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus Counties. Interestingly, the age group where the highest percent of residents have at least a bachelor’s degree differs for each of the NSJV counties. In Merced County the largest percent of residents aged 35-44 have bachelor’s degrees or higher. In San Joaquin County this group is those aged 65 and over, while in Stanislaus County it is those aged 25-34. Despite the difference in which group has the largest percent of residents with a bachelor’s degree or higher between counties, San Joaquin County is more highly educated in each age group, followed by Stanislaus County.

Data for this indicator was obtained from the Census Bureau’s Decennial Census, and American Community Survey, 1-year estimates. Data for 2000 was obtained from the 2000 Decennial Census, while data for 2005, 2010, and 2015 was obtained from the American Community Survey.

This graph shows the educational attainment of NSJV residents every five years since the year 2000. The rate for bachelor’s degrees has increased over time. In 2000 approximately 30.3% of the NSJV population had less than a high school education while approximately 13.7% had a bachelor’s degree or above. By 2015 less than 24% of the NSJV had less than a high school education while 17.2% had a bachelor’s degree or above. Despite this increase in educational attainment, the NSJV still lags behind California where 32.3% of residents have at least a bachelor’s degree.